Talk About BS: JPMorgan Economists Discard Prior Recession Prediction, Foresee US Economic Resilience

JPMorgan’s economists have jettisoned previous predictions of an impending U.S. recession. Their chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, is confident that the American economy will maintain a modest but steady growth trajectory throughout the remainder of the current year and well into 2024.

JPMorgan Foresees U.S. Economic Growth Amid ‘Ridiculous’ Fitch Downgrade and Recession Fears

Echoing Bank of America’s revision of its economic outlook, JPMorgan’s team of economists have likewise set aside their earlier recession projections. The top-ranking bank in the nation initially forecasted a downturn for 2023. However, their principal U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, now holds a more optimistic view that the U.S. can successfully dodge a full-scale recession.

“While a recession is no longer our modal scenario, risk of a downturn is still very elevated,” Feroli wrote on Friday. “One way this risk could materialize is if the Fed is not done hiking rates. Another way in which recession risks could materialize is if the normal lagged effects of the tightening already delivered kick in.”

Feroli, alongside his cohort of economists at JPMorgan, now foresees an economic resurgence in 2023, followed by a period of “modest, sub-par growth” in the subsequent year. This projection defies the widespread dissenting opinion that a recession, or even a depression, within the U.S., is inevitable. Danielle DiMartino Booth, the CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, argues that the repercussions of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increments and quantitative tightening have yet to fully manifest in the U.S. banking industry.

Moreover, JPMorgan’s perspective comes on the heels of Fitch Ratings’ decision to lower the credit rating of the United States. Unfazed by Fitch’s downgrade, JPMorgan’s chief, Jamie Dimon, dismissed the move as “ridiculous” in an interview. Speaking to CNBC, Dimon downplayed the significance of the downgrade, saying “it doesn’t really matter that much,” and emphasized that the United States remains “the most prosperous nation on the planet, [and] the most secure nation on the planet.”

Dimon and his team at JPMorgan perceive a budding growth in the U.S. economy, prompting their economists to doubt their previous forecasts. “Given this growth, we doubt the economy will quickly lose enough momentum to slip into a mild contraction as early as next quarter, as we had previously projected,” Feroli concluded in his missive to investors last Friday.