As governments ease lockdown restrictions, attention is focused on the risk of a second wave of COVID-19 infections. And, as JPMorgan writes, “the message from most people is: so far, so good, although as everyone also recognizes the lags with COVID-19 are long, so that three-to-four weeks need to pass in order to see how easing restrictions will impact new infections.”
Encouragingly, as JPM economist David Mackie points out, we have passed that point for a number of European countries. For example, Denmark started to ease lockdown restrictions 49 days ago without any sign of a second wave of infection. But, in JPM’s view, “this way of counting the days is misleading, and it will take a while longer before we know whether restrictions have been eased too much or not.”
In a report titled “Counting the days: risks of a COVID-19 second wave”, Mackie writes that the collapse in mobility when lockdown restrictions were imposed played a key role in driving the reproduction number (R-naught) below one. But, mobility has not been the only development weighing on the reproduction number, with JPM claiming that a number of other developments, including the buildup of immunity in the population, the reduced susceptibility of young people, the prospect of self-isolation of vulnerable individuals, the impact of weather and the impact of wearing masks and increased hygiene, all exert downward pressure on the reproduction number as mobility increases.
The bank’s analysis suggested that only when mobility increases more than halfway back from full-lockdown levels to pre-lockdown levels is there a risk of the reproduction number moving back above one. This suggests that, in assessing the risk of a second wave (or counting down the days to one), we should start counting the days from the moment that mobility in each country returns to the halfway mark.
This is what the JPM strategist has done in the table below, and it presents a much more cautious picture. As Mackie writes, “if we assume that it takes up to 28 days before we will see clear signs of a second wave, then only Norway and Denmark are close to that point. For the rest of Western Europe, we need to wait a while longer. Indeed, although mobility has increased in the United Kingdom and Italy since the lockdowns were eased, neither country has seen it return to the halfway mark.”
Receive a daily recap featuring a curated list of must-read stories.
The bank’s conclusion: “A second wave of COVID-19 infection may or may not come to Western Europe. But it is much too early to assume that it won’t.”
One final note: we are confident that the largest US bank being one of the biggest beneficiaries of a new round of massive QE to be launched by the Fed if and when a second wave hits, had almost no impact on this analysis.
Editor, Bankster Crime
Here’s the Bitcoin and Ethereum link that is likely to offer higher returns on these alts
When was the last time Altcoin Market Cap turned its old 2014 highs into support? With ETH’s price rally above $3200 level, altcoins have started rallying again.…Read More
Luongo: Cryptos “Are The Right Tool To Call Bull$hit On Central Banks”
Bitcoin: It’s Not A “Real” Truck I just bought a new truck. My 2013 Ford Focus (with requisite 5 speed Millennial Anti-Theft Device) couldn’t keep…Read More
Tron, Chainlink, VeChain Price Analysis: 30 April
Source: Pixabay The altcoin market has been dealing with a sudden shift in volatility throughout the month of April. With Bitcoin bringing in bearish drops and Ethereum…Read More
Cryptocurrencies Are the Next Frontier for the Surveillance State
Countries are launching digital currencies to rival Bitcoin—and opening up new ways to snoop on their citizens in the process. ILLUSTRATION BY DANIEL ZENDER At…Read More
Dollar Drop, Crypto Pop Reflects “Crazy People” Running The System
The last few months have seen the dollar dive and crypto thrive… Source: Bloomberg And the last few days have been no different… Source: Bloomberg…Read More
Will Crypto Weakness Push Silver Higher
Crypto down! Silver up? We think a growing forward trend is a combination of pressure on crypto currencies, particularly Bitcoin (Ethereum has software applications that…Read More
JP Morgan Launches Bitcoin Fund For Rich Clients After Years Of Bashing Crypto
Ever since JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon first denounced bitcoin waaaaay back during the heady crypto-rally of 2017 (shortly before we revealed that JP Morgan’s asset-management…Read More
How to Sell Bitcoin?
How to sell Bitcoin? If you have bought or received Bitcoin in other ways, you’re probably wondering how to change it to cash. Good news!…Read More
Tron, Synthetix, STEEM, FTX Token Price Analysis
By Saif Naqvi As market leaders Bitcoin and Ethereum moved deeper into the bearish zone, other altcoins registered losses and scrambled to find support at various levels. Tron hovered…Read More
I Bought The Bitcoin Dip”…Now What?
What is Cryptocurrency? It is a form of digital money, in short. For the long answer, keep reading our “What is cryptocurrency” guide. More and…Read More
Leave a Comment