BY SRH
Crude drops further, stocks exploding, amid another bombshell headline which will more than likely be met with a swift Iranian denial..
All of this and it’s only Monday…
Oil Tumbles on the Unexpected: Trump Signals Sanctions Relief (…TACO Monday)
Al Jazeera is reporting that President Trump is signaling he’d be open to providing Iran with sanctions relief in return for nuclear concessions – though it remains that Tehran has throughout the war insisted that a ceasefire deal must be achieved first, before the nuclear file is dealt with.
US official says US President Trump is prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and release its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear issue, reports Al Jazeera
And…
CNN and Axios also run US offiicial comments (echoing Al Jazeera) that US President Trump is willing to grant Iran sanctions relief and release frozen funds in exchange for real progress on the nuclear issue.
As stocks jump, crude big plummet…
Based on what local media say, crude drops even more.
Crude prices fall even more, stocks go through the roof, and there’s another shocking news story that Iran will probably quickly deny:
Al Hadath from the Saudi state says that Iran has agreed to stop enrichment in return for lessening US sanctions.
It was either denied or a quick walk-back:
A US source involved in talks with Iran told Al Arabiya that the chances of reaching an agreement are very low.
Some news sources say that negotiators have made a last-ditch effort to get Trump to agree with their plan that Tehran should make nuclear-related concessions first. However, an Iranian source told Amwaj Media that no such offer has been made.
All of this on a Monday…
Oil Falls for No Reason: Trump Suggests Relief from Sanctions (…TACO Monday)
According to Al Jazeera, President Trump is making it clear that he would be willing to ease sanctions on Iran in exchange for nuclear concessions. However, Tehran has insisted throughout the war that a ceasefire deal must be reached first, before the nuclear issue is dealt with.
Al Jazeera reports that a US official has said that President Trump is ready to ease sanctions on Iran and free its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear problem.
And…
CNN and Axios also report that US officials have said, similar to Al Jazeera, that President Trump is ready to lift sanctions against Iran and free frozen funds in exchange for real progress on the nuclear issue.
Stocks go up, but crude oil prices go down…
Note from Newsquawk: Oil prices are going down because the dollar is under a little pressure. On the other hand, Treasuries, stocks, and spot gold prices are going up because of rumors that Trump is ready to loosen sanctions on Iran and let its frozen assets go in return for progress on the nuclear issue. Until then…
Officials in Iran are pessimistic about making a deal with the US before the midterms.
What will really matter here is how Iran reacts. Most likely, they will see this as just another plan to lower oil prices, and they have already said many times that they “don’t trust” Trump. The only time Trump flatly turned down Iran’s offer of a seven-day ceasefire was on Friday nite and Saturday morning, without even trying to meet to talk about the details. But it looks like that could happen this week in a roundabout way, through the usual Gulf middlemen.
New Threat from Ayatollah
President Trump turned down an Iranian offer for a 7-day ceasefire and a road map to peace over the weekend, and Iran then attacked 19 ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Now, both sides are ready to fire.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that Iran has said it is “fully prepared” to start a full-scale war with the United States again, even though it is still open to talks. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who hasn’t been seen since the war began and his father was killed, said on Monday that his forces had driven the “enemy” from the waters off of southern Iran to the Arabian Sea.
“Having suffered painful blows from our valiant combatants and the guardians of the Strait of Hormuz, they [the enemy] dare not venture beyond the Arabian Sea,” Khamenei wrote in a new message. He told them that war might soon start in the Arabian Sea too.
by AFP
On the occasion of both the Iran-Iraq War and the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah by Israel in 2024, he posted these words.
“Whenever they have risked doing so they have only inflicted harm upon themselves, and the time is fast approaching when the Arabian Sea, too, will be cleared of their presence,” Khamenei’s message said. Last week, Iranian security officials said that war is coming to the Indian Ocean in a wider sense. This goes along with those threats.
But the truth is that over the past week, oil flows from the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman have been going up. But it looks more and more possible that fighting will start up again in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian forces are trying to stop this increase in traffic.
This because it’s clear that diplomacy has stopped. Bloomberg says, “Iran and the US seemed very far apart on a new ceasefire deal or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran said it would stick to a proposal that US President Donald Trump had turned down.”And, “Oil futures went up because Iran and the US seemed to have very different ideas about a new ceasefire deal or reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran said it would stick to a plan that US President Donald Trump had turned down.”„Go back to the ‘Talks’ story
Like clockwork, unnamed diplomatic officials are pushing the “talks” story again in the early morning hours of Monday. According to the most recent news from Bloomberg:
On Monday or Tuesday, mediators were supposed to hold separate talks with the US and Iran. Sources say that Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi and the Qatari mediators would stay in the US. Talks will center on a changed version of Iran’s 7-day plan that it brought to the UNGA’s attention.
Trump turned down Iran’s latest plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Iran said that any reopening would depend on its conditions being met, and its UN delegation is said to have no plans to talk with the US. Still, Trump thinks that talks will start up again this week, and the Iranian President is also in favor of talking.
A similar story came out in the Wall Street Journal on Monday morning: “Peace negotiators are pressing Iran to make a concession on its nuclear program to revive ceasefire talks with the U.S. after President Trump rejected Tehran’s truce proposal, in a race to stop the conflict from escalating back into all-out war,” the paper says. About the news:
Brent Dec went down from $100.70/bbl to about $99.00/bbl.
WTI November fell from USD 96/bbl to USD 94.90/bbl.
Trump said these new things to Axios:
Trump told Axios over the phone, “I expect more talks with Iran (this week).” “They want to make a deal, but I don’t want to make that deal.” We might have agreed to it a year ago. They played their hand too much.
It looks like Araghchi stayed in New York over the weekend after going to the UN General Assembly, since President Pesheshkian had already left for Iran.
Get ready for “apocalyptic war” if it happens…
At the same time, the US economic war is still going strong. Iran’s currency hit another all-time low against the US dollar. This was made worse by high inflation and the Trump/Bessent “Economic D-Day” and “Operation Economic Outcast” campaigns, which aim to choke the country. The free market exchange rate has gone up to 2.3 million rials per US dollar, according to people who keep an eye on the economy.
Weekend and overnight news from NewsQuawk
President Trump of the United States said he turned down an offer from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran wants to make a deal that opens the strait right away because it is losing so much.
Axios reports that US President Trump said he thinks talks with Iran will start up again this week, even though he turned down Iran’s most recent offer. He also said that the conditions Iran wants are ones that the US may have agreed to about a year ago and that Tehran overplayed its hand.
US President Trump said that oil prices will go down as soon as the war with Iran ends, which will happen soon. He also said that a record amount of oil was taken out of Hormuz on Saturday nite. Trump also said that they would win both military and economic wars against Iran, but he didn’t say anything about attacking Iran before the midterms. He did say that inflation in Iran was 318 percent. According to a report from Axios on Friday, US Ambassador to Beijing Perdue said that US President Trump told Chinese President Xi to stop helping Iran during the meeting. One person close to the Iranian delegation in New York told IRNA that they have no plans to talk with the US.
Araghchi, the foreign minister of Iran, said that they had seen Trump’s initial answer to the 7-day ceasefire proposal but were still waiting for the official response through mediators. He also said that they could only get out of this impasse by negotiating a solution. Araghchi also said that Iran’s demands are clear and that progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz will only happen if these demands are met.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that he and Iranian President Pezeshkian did not come to New York to sell a war, but to make peace. He also said that Iran will not back down from any aggression, even if it means a terrible war, but is also ready for real diplomacy.
Iranian President Pezeshkian said that countries in the region can protect their own safety. He also denied that Iran was directly involved in the situation in Yemen, saying that it had nothing to do with Iran. However, he did say that Iran is ready to help end the conflict and urged the Houthis and Saudi Arabia to start talking instead of making things worse. A spokesman for the IRGC said that the Strait of Hormuz is not only closed, but also a place where the IRGC Navy hunts US submarines.
A spokesman for the Iran army said that the country’s armed forces are ready for any new attacks from the US after President Trump said he would not accept a deal from Iran. According to Fars News, local sources said that a sea cruiser fired at a ship that was going through the Strait of Hormuz without permission. On Sunday, Saudi authorities said that classes in Riyadh would not happen for a week because the day before, reports said that Saudi air defenses had intercepted Houthi drones heading toward the city and ballistic missiles aimed at Khamis Mushait.
Even though Iran was attacked during earlier talks, its president Pezeshkian said that his country is still ready to talk. He also said that attacks and pressure will not make Iran give up.
N12 reported that a source said Iran is ready to make concessions on its nuclear program but wants assurances that Israel will not attack again after a deal with the US.
The likelihood of achieving an agreement with Iran is exceedingly low.
