Supertanker Explodes After Hitting Mine, IRGC Says, & Asserts ‘Strait Of Hormuz Is Closed’…

BY SRH

Summary

• IRGC says supertanker exploded after hitting mine in Hormuz, says strait remains closed.
• ‘Deal’ headlines return: US seeks “Step-by-Step” agreement with Iran, reports state media.
• Houthis seized more Red Sea territory, including Perim Island near the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
• Iran-Gulf diplomacy was postponed, delaying efforts to address the Strait of Hormuz crisis in what was to be a rare GCC-Iran meeting.
• Saudi oil exports face ongoing disruption after a pipeline shutdown, pushing oil prices above $100/barrel.

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Supertanker Explodes After Hitting Mine: IRGC

Iran’s IRGC Navy has late Monday (local) announced that a foreign supertanker exploded when it struck naval mines after attempting to enter an unapproved zone of the southern Strait of Hormuz, Fars reports.

Bloomberg also picked up the reported tanker explosion, providing the following further details:

• Efforts to contain the blaze have been unsuccessful, leaving the vessel engulfed in flames, Fars says
• The statement identified the vessel as the supertanker EL GAIA, with IMO number 9325336
• “Warnings had previously been issued regarding the dangers of this illegal passage”
• “IRGC Navy decisively declares that the Strait of Hormuz is closed”

If the emerging reports are accurate, it contradicts President Trump’s recent claims that the strait has been fully de-mined. Reuters in late August noted of a Truth Social post that the president proclaimed “all mines ‌had been detonated or removed from international waters of the Strait of Hormuz and that Iran has been told that any ship ​or boat placing new mines will be ​destroyed.”

Oil Drops on Return of ‘US Seeks Deal’ Headlines

Just as President Trump is appearing to show some desperation concerning soaring energy prices ahead of the midterm elections, and amid growing Republican angst, we witness a return to the ‘a deal could return’ style headlines which marked earlier phases of the war:

US seeks “Step-by-Step” agreement with Iran, reports ILNA citing Pakistani sources

• As the war and US pressure against Iran continue, Washington’s efforts to reach a “step-by-step” agreement with Tehran; a scenario that could be a prelude to the US entering the path of negotiations, without abandoning military and economic pressure.

And the all too familiar pattern that marked early summer…

OIL DROPS TO INTRADAY LOW, BRENT TRADES NEAR $106 A BARREL

Iranian state media is meanwhile suggesting that Washington interfered in what was a planned meeting between Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council states (GCC) toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. That meeting, which was supposed to happen Monday, was postponed indefinitely – after reports said the Saudis sought to add something untenable to a draft agreement. Tehran is still rejecting that it is ‘seeking’ new talks with Washington.

Trump has issued several provocative Truth Social posts throughout the morning…

The next weeks could possibly see a return to Axios’ ‘negotiations imminent’ WH leak tactics, to artificially keep energy prices under control…

Meanwhile and important indicator of where things actually stand…

Yemen’s Houthis Attack Saudi Base, And Take Fire After Major Conquest

Yemen’s Ansar Allah — also known as the Houthis — claimed it fired drones and missiles at King Khalid Air Base in southern Saudi Arabia. Dozens of ballistic missiles and drones targeted military infrastructure in the rare and major cross-border attack.

The Houthis say the base suffered direct hits and extensive damage in a “large-scale military operation”, though this could not be immediately verified, after the operation which their military spokesman described as retaliation more than 300 Saudi airstrikes across Yemen over most of the past week. Early reports from open source analysts suggest serious damage sustained at the base.

The sprawling base in Khamis Mushait has historically been used at times by US and UK advanced fighter jets, and has hangars that are well-fortified, though it’s unknown the degree to which Western assets continue to be stationed there. For example, it was heavily utilized by the Pentagon during the first Gulf War, from where stealth fighters were launched to attack high priority targets in Iraq.

A Houthi spokesman has declared that the ongoing mission’s targeting includes “weapons depots and command and control centers that are managing the aggression against our nation and people.”

On Sunday, the internationally recognized Yemeni government — which controls neither the capital nor territory encompassing a majority of the population — said its air force launched three strikes on Houthi positions in the Taiz region. There were also reports of artillery fire on a Houthi stronghold in Saada province, on the northern border with Saudi Arabia.

In a blitz that caught the world by surprise, the Houthis late last week achieved an enormous strategic victory by conquering the remainder of Yemen’s western coastline it didn’t already control — positioning it to easily enforce its declared blockade against Saudi-related shipping entering or leaving the Red Sea via the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Houthi soldiers also took over Perim Island, which sits in the strait.

As Associated Press noted, the seizure of the new territory puts the Houthis in much closer proximity to US forces:

The Houthis’ advance puts them just 20 miles (32 kilometers) from the U.S. military base in Djibouti, on the other side of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. It’s the main U.S. base in Africa and one of several foreign military bases in Djibouti, including those of China, France and Japan.

The Houthi blockade is positioned as retaliation for the Saudi coalition’s siege and blockade of Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. Though the Houthi blockade only targets Saudi shipping, global cargo lines are highly wary of transiting the waterway that’s narrower than the Strait of Hormuz. Many are rerouting traffic all the way around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, which requires at least 20 extra days and a lot more money. “Freedom of navigation and international trade in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb are safe and orderly,” a Houthi official told Al Jazeera.

While it’s too little, too late for Riyah’s hopes of some kind of big Washington intervention in Yemen, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Monday met US Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper in Jeddah, the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) has confirmed. Likely they reviewed the coalition’s narrowing options going forward, but President Trump has thus far expressed reluctance to get directly involved militarily, at a moment he’s still trying to figure out what’s next with Iran.

Iran Diplomacy Postponed

Cold water has been thrown on flickering hopes for finding an exit from the latest and most dangerous chapter in America’s “endless wars,” as a highly-anticipated Monday summit of Iran and other Persian Gulf states was postponed.

That bad news follows an eventful several days that saw Yemen’s Iran-allied Ansar Allah take control of a large swath of strategic coastside territory. Saudi Arabia’s critical east-west pipeline, shut down after a drone attack that originated in Iraq, may be the center of a major hit to global oil supply.

The Monday meeting was set to take place in the Omani coastal city of Salalah, with attendees including foreign ministers of Iran, Oman, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar. Taking a US-friendly line, Bahrain had declined to attend, saying stability “cannot be preserved through a policy of appeasement” and demanding the strait be re-opened without “discrimination, fees or permits.” The tiny state that is was home to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet also cited its ongoing suspension of diplomatic relations with Iran.

The meeting was going to focus on a proposed arrangement by which Iran and Oman would jointly manage the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through the vital waterway is at a near standstill, more than six months after the United States and Israel launched a war on Iran. Axios’ Barak Ravid, seen by many as a conduit for US-Israeli narratives, reported that Saudi Arabia had submitted amendments to the proposal.

“At the request of some regional countries and by a joint decision of Oman and Iran, the meeting of foreign ministers of Persian Gulf coastal states, which was planned for Monday, has been postponed to another date,” Iranian foreign ministry official Mohammad Ali Bak told Iran’s IRNA. If the meeting comes to fruition, it would be the first one to convene top diplomats from Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council since the war started on Feb 28.

Previously, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said attendees would be presented with route maps and other details about how ships would enter and depart the strait. Importantly, he emphasized that the proposal was not sufficient to actually reopen the strait.

Closure of Saudi Pipeline Set To Remove 4% of Global Supply

A different lifeline was completely closed over the weekend, with no end in sight: Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipeline was shut down after a devastating attack on a pumping station that seemingly originated with Shiite militias in Iraq. The pipeline was playing a vital role in offsetting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, by sending oil to Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port on the Red Sea.

Saudi oil traders told Reuters that, unless the pipeline is opened up within days, the kingdom will run out of export stock, removing as much as 4% of worldwide supply from the market. Even before the pipeline-pumping station attack, Saudi inventory had plummeted to its lowest level in 30 years.

Though Saudi Arabia initially called the closure a mere “precautionary measure,” some observers have very little optimism about a quick resumption of pipeline flow. One source told Reuters it could take five to six weeks to repair. If you’d imagined the pumping station some small facility, this image should give you a proper orientation to what must be restored “in a few days” to avert a major disruption of global supply:

Overnight, West Texas Intermediate futures leapt by 2.89% to $102.94 a barrel. Brent was up almost as much, trading at $107.56.  Source: ZeroHedge