JP Morgan Warns a Global Food Crisis Could Hit Next Year, and Unlike Oil, There’s No Backup Plan for Fertilizer

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BY SRH

When it comes to food security, things could worsen before they improve. And, as Howard Jones sang in his 1985 classic, “Things Can Only Get Better,” he “won’t stop or falter.”

That’s an appropriate attitude for Americans facing the prospect of significantly greater grocery expenditures. A new JPMorgan analysis, Food Security is National Security: A Compounding Storm, warns that global food prices might rise by 5% in the first half of 2027. That’s up from the current US food inflation rate of 3%, which is already putting a strain on household finances.
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The United States is not one of the countries most likely to be directly affected by the food-security problems that JPMorgan predicts. But it does not imply Americans will be safe from them.

America imports many of its staple staples, such as coffee, chocolate, and sugar. All of these products are often provided to the United States by the countries that are most likely to be directly affected.

Here’s what’s jeopardizing global food security, and why some countries are more prepared than others.
El Niño, Iran War, and Fertilizer Shortages

JPMorgan’s expected food deficits have two components: a fertilizer scarcity and a massive weather event.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had an impact on more than just gas prices. The strait also receives over one-third of the world’s nitrogen fertilizer, which is required for approximately half of the world’s crops.

Nitrogen fertilizer scarcity is a ticking time bomb. Because it is required in the early phases of crop growth, a shortage could have long-term consequences.

“Agriculture operates within a crop calendar that cannot be postponed,” Qu Dongyu, director-general of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, stated in a news release on their website. “Fertilizers must be sprayed at specific times during the crop cycle. If they don’t arrive on time, yields suffer, regardless of what occurs subsequently.”

In Southern Italy, everything seemed ordinary in the supermarkets on Monday. Shoppers browsed packed shelves, picking up bread, pasta, and fresh meat. But as the week unfolded, a diesel-price protest snowballed—refineries stalled, fuel deliveries stopped, and trucks idled.

By Thursday, the pace of normal life snapped. Grocery trucks never arrived. In Foggia and nearby towns, meat cases gleamed empty, bread aisles echoed, and staple foods vanished. On social media, anxious posts showed stripped shelves and worried faces.

Four days: That’s all it took for just-in-time inventory to unravel. Neighbors whispered about whether Europe was quietly stress-testing its fragile food and fuel systems—or if this was simply what panic looked like when supply lines stuttered.